The New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) projects a possible power supply shortfall for New York City in 2033 and emphasizes increasing statewide risks to the electric system’s reliability in its 2024 Reliability Needs Assessment (RNA), published last week.
The RNA, released every two years, assesses the future reliability of New York’s electric grid a decade out, relying on power demand forecasts, planned transmission system upgrades, public policy initiatives and changes in energy generation sources. It highlights several developments driving anticipated growth in peak demand over the next 10 years, such as large, high-energy-use commercial customers like data centers and chip manufacturing facilities, as well as the electrification of transportation and buildings.
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State legislation passed in 2023 mandates the New York Power Authority (NYPA) to shut down its small natural gas plants in New York City and Long Island, leading to a loss of 517 megawatts (MW).
The law does allow NYPA to work with the NYISO to assess whether these plants are essential for maintaining electric system reliability.
The RNA findings indicate a reliability shortfall of 17 MW in New York City during the summer of 2033, which grows to 97 MW by the summer of 2034.
These potential reliability issues and resource gaps could be addressed through the addition of new generation capacity, development of more transmission infrastructure, enhanced energy efficiency measures, integration of distributed energy resources, and increased participation in demand response programs.
“Our latest report demonstrates the continued importance of the NYISO’s in-depth planning process and the need to closely monitor the rapidly changing electric grid,” NYISO Senior Vice President, System and Resource Planning Zach Smith said. “In this RNA, we highlight several risk factors that could adversely affect system reliability in the months and years ahead.”
The plan emphasizes the critical role of completing planned transmission projects on schedule — particularly the Champlain Hudson Power Express (CHPE) — to ensure system reliability. If the CHPE project or alternative solutions are not operational by May 2026, New York City could face reliability shortfalls starting that year.
The RNA identifies challenges to grid reliability associated with the anticipated transition from a summer-peaking to a winter-peaking system. This shift, brought about by the electrification of buildings and transportation, is expected to accelerate over the next decade.
Rising winter demand brings new reliability risks, particularly regarding fuel availability for gas-fired generators. On the coldest days, natural gas distribution companies prioritize residential heating, limiting fuel supplies for generators without firm contracts — precisely when the gas generation is most critical to meeting peak winter demand.
Amid the rapidly evolving landscape of electrical infrastructure, the NYISO will continue to track these and other developments to assess whether shifts in system resources and conditions might affect the reliability of New York’s electric grid.
Photo by Reynaldo #brigworkz Brigantty
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